Betting on the Premier League as well as other football leagues is something that almost every nation does. This is due to the fact that the sport is popular in almost every nation. The beautiful game is loved by billions of people, and the opportunity to wager on it only adds to the excitement.
Bettors will find useful soccer betting tips and guidance in this guide to the finest soccer betting tips and predictions as they discover how to wager on the Premier League and other soccer leagues. Furthermore, bettors will learn how to bet on soccer and the many kinds of predictions they may make on the sport at all levels of the game, ranging from the World Cup to the most obscure club tournaments.
All of the information presented here is very simple to implement. It won’t transform you into a constant winner overnight, but it will set you on the path to success. If you are a novice, it will assist you in forming healthy habits straight away. And, if you’ve been betting for a long time, it may well assist you in correcting some errors you weren’t even aware of.
Some of this advice is applicable to sports betting in general, while others are specific to soccer. In any case, it’s all significant. Most importantly, it’s presented in a manner that should be simple to comprehend. Read to the end, you will not regret!
Beginner Tips For Soccer Betting
In terms of betting strategy, gamblers should look for value above everything else in football. While the best club teams in the world are always favorites to win, there are times when they are favored by too many goals. If an elite football team, for example, has a midweek match to worry about, they may not be completely focused on their Saturday domestic football match. That may be a chance to get an inflated line against their league opponent.
Analyzing the matchup of styles that both sides bring into a contest is another tip approach worth considering. Depending on who they are paired up with, some teams may play a more aggressive style of football, while others will attempt to sit back and play defensive football. The both teams to score would be more attractive if two offensive teams were on the field than if two defensive teams were on the field. Understanding the types of play that both teams bring to the table before making your recommendations is the key to any soccer bet, whether online or offline.
Top 15 Tips To Keep In Mind While Betting On Soccer
When making soccer predictions, bettors need to keep a few things in mind in order to make the greatest bets possible. The first of these pointers to consider is that the team’s schedule has a significant effect on the lineups they use on the field.
Some clubs may have a league game on the weekend, a game in the Champions League or another cup tournament in the middle of the week, and another league game the following weekend throughout the club season. To prevent tiredness, a team must rotate its players out due to the rigorous schedule. This may indicate that a team isn’t at or near full strength and, depending on their depth, should be avoided.
Another thing to keep in mind is that injuries in football are just as significant as they are in other sports. Football injuries may be equally as severe as those in other sports, despite the fact that it isn’t considered as a physically demanding activity. All bettors should make sure to stay up to date on team news to see whether an injury has occurred before attempting to win their tips and predictions.
Understand The Value Concept
When it comes to betting on sports, having a good understanding of the sport is unquestionably beneficial. It helps in the evaluation of potential outcomes and the formulation of forecasts. However, that information is much more helpful when it is coupled with a thorough grasp of some of the most basic betting principles. There is one notion in particular that must be understood:
Recreational bettors often overlook value, which is why so many of them lose money. Ignoring or misinterpreting value may be detrimental to your betting performance. It is very essential. It’s not as simple as predicting what will happen and then making the right bets to be successful at betting. You must also consider how much value a wager provides. This entails weighing the chances of it winning against the odds offered.
You should only ever make bets with positive anticipated value. Positive anticipated value indicates that a gamble has a better probability of winning in the long term than the odds imply. It’s understandable if you’re perplexed at this point, but the idea of worth isn’t quite as complex as it seems.
When betting on sports, your hit rate is the percentage of bets you win compared to the total number of bets you make. In most cases, it’s represented as a percentage. So, if you make 100 bets and win 50% of them, your hit rate is 50%.
If every bet you made was a winner, you’d have a 100 percent hit rate and be well on your way to making a lot of money. However, as we have previously shown, this is completely impractical. Of course, you should strive for accuracy in your forecasts, but a high hit rate does not ensure a profit in the long run.
We’ll show you how this works with a hypothetical situation involving tennis match betting. For the sake of this example, we’ll utilize the opening day of the 2013 US Open. It’s realistic to anticipate most of the favorites to win in early round matches in a tournament, so you could be relatively sure of a high hit rate if you decided to support them all.
Let’s explore what would have occurred if you had chosen to wager on all of the favorites in the first-day men’s matches.
As you can see, you would have struck almost 80% of the time. On the surface, winning almost four out of five wagers seems to be a good result. On that day, though, the average odds for the favorites who won were 1.25. Based on those odds, your 15 successful bets would have yielded $187.50 in total (including stake) for a profit of $37.50 if you had placed $10 on each match.
You would have also lost four bets at $10 each, totaling $2.50 in losses. You’ve just just lost, and the identical approach might have earned you a little profit on another day. However, we haven’t used this example to examine the advantages and disadvantages of betting on favorites in tennis matches, and this is a very tiny sample of relevant data to begin with.
The point we’re attempting to convey with this example is that just because you have a high hit rate doesn’t guarantee you’ll earn money. To put it another way, your hit rate has nothing to do with your likelihood of earning money. It simply shows the number of bets you win in relation to the number of bets you make.
As we’ve just shown, winning a large proportion of your bets does not always imply earning money. It is the relative quality of your forecasts, not the quantity of correct predictions, that defines your success. This is where value comes into play, since the quality of your forecasts is determined by the value connected with them. We’ll get into precisely what value is in terms of sports betting in a moment, but first let’s take a look at how probability plays a part.
Basic probability is really very simple. It is a scale that expresses the probability of something occurring, and it is typically represented as a decimal between 0 and 1. 0 represents impossible and 1 represents certainty. Probability may also be represented as a percentage, with 0% implying impossibility and 100% implying certainty.
Probability can be estimated accurately in many situations. Take, for instance, a coin flip. Only two outcomes are conceivable, and both are equally probable. The chance of the coin landing on heads is therefore 50%, and the probability of the coin landing on tails is likewise 50%.
Another good example is the roll of a die. There are six potential outcomes, each of which has an equal chance of occurring. As a result, the probability of rolling any particular number is always 16.66 percent (100 percent divided by six).
In sports betting, probability is a little more complicated. Because there are so many variables in a sporting event, it is difficult to determine the exact likelihood of any result. You may use all the statistics you want and consider all the variables that might influence an outcome, but there is no way to calculate an absolutely correct probability.
All you can do is determine what you think the odds are of a certain result. This is also all the bookies can do. While the odds they establish reflect the relative probability of the various possibilities, they are not always precise approximations of the probabilities at hand. They are ultimately based on the bookies’ judgment of what they believe will happen, modified to ensure that there is a margin built in for them.
While bookmakers have an edge in terms of odds, it is feasible to outsmart them. It will not be simple, but it is definitely doable. You should ideally have a thorough understanding of your sports, as well as indicated likelihood and anticipated value.
Expected Value And Implied Probability
In sports betting, implied probability refers to how likely a result is based on the odds. It’s worked out by multiplying one by the decimal odds. So, if the Chicago Bears are assigned 2.50 odds to win a game, their implied chance of winning is 0.4, or 40%. If they are offered 1.50 odds to win a game, their implied chance of winning is 0.67, or 67%.
The term “expected value” refers to the amount of money you may anticipate to win from a bet. It’s a theoretical metric based on the likelihood of it prevailing in the long run. To demonstrate anticipated value, consider betting on the Chicago Bears at 2.50.
If you bet $10 on the Bears to win at 2.50 odds, you’ll get a total return of $25, including your initial investment. If the implied chance of their winning (40 percent based on these odds) is an accurate representation of their actual probability of winning, you will be rewarded $25 40 percent of the time you place this bet. When you place this bet, you will lose $10 60% of the time.
The formula for calculating anticipated value is as follows:
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won Per Bet) – (Probability of Losing x Stake)
Let’s utilize this formula to determine the wager’s anticipated value.
(40% x $15) – (60% x $10) = $6.00 –$6.00 = $0.00
As a result, the anticipated value of this wager is zero, implying that it will break even in the long term. Obviously, in reality, it will always win or lose, but anticipated value is utilized to determine how much theoretical value a bet provides over time.
When you believe that the implied probability is an accurate representation of actual probability, the anticipated value of a wager is always zero. The inferred probability indicated by bookmakers’ odds, on the other hand, is typically greater than the actual likelihood. When the Chicago Bears are given 2.50 odds to win a game, the true chance of them winning is less than 40%.
Let’s perform some math using a 35 percent actual chance of the Bears winning and a 65 percent real probability of them losing.
(35% x $15) – (65% x $10) = $5.25 – $6.50 = -$1.25
We can see that a bet on the Bears winning at 2.50 has a negative expected value based on these probability. This indicates that you should expect to lose money in the long term on this bet.
The quality of your forecasts is determined by the value connected with them, as we stated before. If a forecast entails placing a wager with an anticipated value less than zero, it is considered a low-quality prediction. You may be correct on occasion, but the assumption is that you will lose money in the long term.
Generating bets with a positive anticipated value is an important part of making high-quality forecasts. These may be incorrect at times, but the assumption is that you will earn money over time. To discover positive expected value, look for wagering chances where you think the true likelihood is greater than the implied probability indicated by the odds.
Let’s look at another example, this time betting on the Chicago Bears to win at 2.50. This time, we’ll perform the math assuming you believe they have a 45 percent chance of winning.
(45% x $15) – (55% x $10) = $6.75 – $5.50 = $1.25
We can see that betting on the Chicago Bears at 2.50 now has positive anticipated value. We’ve simplified the samples we’ve used here. We’ve just used them to demonstrate the idea of value betting in sports betting.
We’ve also shown that value is ultimately a matter of opinion, which is an essential point to remember. In reality, a bet on the Chicago Bears to win a game at 2.50 odds could be a solid value bet in one bettor’s eyes and a poor value bet in another’s. It all boils down to how you weigh the relative probability of various events. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to this, and there is no right or wrong way to go about it.
Keep In Mind
There are three major things to which you should pay special attention. The first is that, contrary to popular belief, your hit rate is not as significant as some would have you think. Of course, you want to get as many of your predictions correct as possible, but you also have to think about the probability of your picks. It’s pointless to win 80% of your bets if you’re still losing money overall.
The second thing to consider is that the odds given by bookmakers may not properly represent the true likelihood of various outcomes. They’re generally fairly close, but keep in mind that there’s always the built-in margin to take into account. It is also possible for bookies to make errors and give odds that are greater than they should be theoretically.
The third argument is that determining the value of a wager is a great method to determine which bets to make, but it does not ensure victory. In principle, you should earn money overall if you only ever place bets with a positive anticipated value. It’s essential to remember, however, that value is a subjective concept. Making wagers on things you think are valuable can only pay you if your perspective is accurate.
It’s not simple to spot chances that are really valuable. However, if you can do it regularly, you have a high chance of being a successful gambler. Sports expertise, the capacity to evaluate data and statistics, and an awareness of different betting methods all come in handy in this situation.
Take It Slowly
Soccer is a fantastic sport to wager on for a variety of reasons. The fact that there are so many betting options is one factor in particular. There will never be a time when you won’t be able to put some money down, since soccer matches are played almost every day across the globe.
But don’t feel obligated to wager on every game. Betting on a large number of games is just not the best strategy. You’ll never make consistently excellent choices if you gamble that way. As a result, winning bettors are picky. They don’t gamble just for the sake of it; instead, they wait for the perfect chances to present themselves.
This is the strategy you should attempt to use. Be patient, and only gamble when you’re certain there’s a compelling reason to. You should also be patient in a broader sense. If you want to master soccer betting strategy and eventually make a lot of money, you must understand that it will take time.
You won’t achieve success overnight, no matter how hard you work. So don’t hurry things and don’t be discouraged if you don’t achieve the results you desire right immediately. Stay patient, continue to study, and never stop striving to get better. Success will come at some point.
This is one of the most basic suggestions on the website. It’s also important to keep in mind. It’s pointless to wager on outcomes just because that’s what the majority of people are betting on. For two reasons, this is incorrect.
- The vast majority of gamblers lose their money.
- When a large number of individuals bet on the same outcome, the odds go down.
These two factors are, in fact, inextricably connected. Remember how we discussed the concept of value earlier? And how many gamblers are unaware of it? This is especially true when it comes to betting on huge soccer favorites.
Many gamblers believe that betting on a large favorite is a good idea simply because they are more likely to win. That’s precisely what most casual gamers do, and it’s exactly what lowers the chances, which were already very low to begin with.
Most gamblers, however, are unconcerned with this fact and place their wagers on the favorite anyway. That is why, in the long term, they lose money. Because the large favorites win so frequently, they’ll undoubtedly win a substantial portion of their bets. But only if the odds are stacked against you.
And the winnings they get are unlikely to compensate for the rare times a large favorite loses and they lose their investment. Obviously, there will be a net loss. So, following the mob isn’t a good idea.
You’re just following individuals who are mainly losing and accepting low odds in return. Clearly, it is not a viable approach. This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t ever bet on large favorites. All you have to do now is apply another level or two of thought.
Manage Your Bankroll
This piece of advice is at the top of the list because it is crucial. It’s safe to assume that if you can’t handle your money correctly, you’ll never be a successful gambler. No matter how excellent your other talents are, poor money management will nearly always lead to bankruptcy.
It is not difficult to maintain a healthy bankroll. It’s simply a question of deciding how much you’ll risk on your bets and sticking to them. Sticking to those guidelines is a little more difficult, but if you have adequate discipline, it shouldn’t be too difficult. Football betting bankroll management is basically the same as bankroll management for any other sport.
Keep An Eye On The Games
There’s another page in this guide where we’ve compiled a list of typical football betting blunders. One of these blunders is failing to watch enough games. Many individuals think that the greatest approach to be successful is to concentrate only on studying statistics and making excellent choices based on that analysis. Stats may assist a lot, but they can’t replace actually watching games and developing your own views about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams and players you’re betting on.
There’s plenty of football on TV these days, so there’s no excuse for not watching some of it. Of course, you do not have to watch every live game, but you should attempt to watch as many as possible. Even just viewing highlight reels may be beneficial.
Analyze The Strengths And Weaknesses Of The Team
Soccer bettors have a propensity to evaluate a club primarily on their overall excellence rather than diving into the details. Although it is reasonable, there is a lot to be gained by conducting further research. It’s crucial to know where your team is strong and where they are weak. It provides you a lot more information about how they’ll react in different situations.
This knowledge may assist you in a variety of betting situations. When attempting to forecast the victor of particular games or the number of goals that will be scored, for example. It’s useful for in-play betting and predicting the winner of a league or cup tournament. Your ultimate aim should be to learn all you can about each squad in the contests you’re wagering on.
This clearly requires a significant amount of time and effort, and it may not be feasible for casual bettors. However, you should at the very least attempt to evaluate the relevant teams’ strengths and shortcomings. That alone will be very beneficial to you.
The superior team, in principle, will always have a greater chance of winning. As a result, you may take it into account while searching for betting chances. It’s essential to remember, however, that team quality isn’t the only factor that influences game results. The conditions surrounding a football game have an impact as well. And they’re always distinct from each other in some manner. There are no two circumstances that are the same.
This is one of the reasons why forecasting game results is so difficult. It’s difficult to consider everything and properly evaluate how much impact the various variables may have. However, situational handicapping is a comprehensive approach whose goal is to accomplish just that. The basic concept is to evaluate which factors will have an impact on the game’s result initially. Then you attempt to figure out how those factors will affect the outcome.
This may assist you in making educated decisions about what is likely to occur. Here’s a rundown of some of the situational variables to consider.
Conditions Of Play
Depending on the playing circumstances, certain teams’ performance may improve or deteriorate. Take into account things like the surface, the weather, and the stadium.
Teams on a roll will want to keep winning, while their opponents will be motivated to stop them. Teams who are on a losing run will be low in confidence, and their opponents will most likely underestimate them.
How far did the road crew have to travel? Have they traveled across time zones? These factors have an impact on performance on a regular basis.
Is one of the teams out for vengeance? This may be a powerful motivator.
The Current Situation
Is there still a chance for both clubs to make the playoffs? Is there just one team? A game between two teams with a goal in mind may be quite different from a game when one team has nothing to lose.
Injuries may have a significant impact on teams, especially when big-name players are absent.
Have the players had a lot of time off recently? Have they experienced a string of difficult games in recent weeks, or have they had a reasonably easy stretch of games?
Make Time For Research
This one is most likely self-evident. It is, nevertheless, crucial, which is why we have included it. The basic truth is that unless you keep up with the sport, you’re unlikely to make good forecasts. Spending time on research is the ONLY way to accomplish this properly, therefore it’s pretty much a must-do.
Please keep in mind that you do not need to spend hours upon hours on this. The more time you can devote, the better; but, even an hour or two each week can assist. All you have to do is keep track of injuries, suspensions, and current form. This will allow you to make well-informed decisions while betting on sports.
If you have more time on your hands, we suggest viewing as many games as you can. Or, at the very least, game clips. This is also study, and if you’re a soccer lover, it’s not an awful job. It is, however, a huge assistance, particularly when it comes to evaluating the various teams and individuals you’re betting on.
During the pre-season, it’s a good idea to do some in-depth study and analysis. It’s easy to put soccer betting on the back burner after the season is over, but this is a BIG MISTAKE. Spending this time properly will offer you a significant edge.
Alternative Wagers To Consider
Many soccer bettors devote the bulk of their effort to predicting individual soccer game wins. This method is acceptable, but it is not necessarily the best. There are a number of different methods to wager on soccer, each of which is worthwhile to examine. The greatest value is frequently found in bets that aren’t on the game’s winner. You may already be aware of all of the soccer betting possibilities accessible to you. If you aren’t, you should take steps to rectify the situation.
- Double Chance
- Draw No Bet
- Over/Under Total Goals
- Both Teams to Score
- First Goal Scorer
- Asian Handicap
Personal Bias Should Be Avoided
The majority of soccer bettors are also soccer enthusiasts. They generally root for at least one side, and being partisan is one of the things that makes soccer so fun to watch. It’s what makes soccer stadiums across the globe erupt with emotion and passion. However, it is of no use when it comes to sports betting. In reality, the reverse is true. It has the potential to be very destructive.
When it comes to making decisions, a predisposition for particular teams may seriously distort your judgment.
The best approach is to just avoid betting on anything involving your favorite team(s) or their immediate competitors. However, we are aware that many individuals dislike doing so. So, if you really must wager while you are emotionally involved, attempt to ignore the feeling as much as possible. Make decisions based on reasonable and logical reasoning rather than what you wish to happen. It may be expensive to gamble with your emotions rather than your intellect.
Concentrate Your Attention
We have discussed how many soccer games are played across the globe and how essential it is to be cautious when betting on them. To extend on this, it’s also a good idea to limit your emphasis in terms of the leagues and tournaments you wager on. There are many options to choose, each with its own set of features. They also have certain benefits and drawbacks in terms of betting. For additional information, please visit the following page.
It’s critical to realize that you should learn all you can about any league or tournament on which you want to wager. This makes meaningful evaluations and accurate forecasts much simpler. As a result, concentrating on a small number of leagues and tournaments makes a lot of sense. You should ideally become an expert on just one or two of them. It’s just unrealistic to expect you to do all of the required research for each of them. Overstretching your attention is a guaranteed way to fail.
Always Compare The Odds That Are Available
If you were purchasing a new television, you would most likely browse around for the greatest deal. This is just common sense. When making a purchase, we all want to get the most bang for our buck. But, when it comes to betting, do you follow the same rule? You SHOULD, after all!
The odds for any particular wager may differ from one bookmaker or betting site to another. It’s not typically by much, but it’s enough to make it worthwhile to shop around for the best odds. Including this easy step in the betting procedure every time you make a wager will increase the possible rewards for each and every stake. This may have a significant beneficial effect on your overall performance in the long term.
This isn’t actually a strategic suggestion but we strongly advise you to consider if you’re not currently betting online. There are many benefits to betting on soccer via the internet, and it would be foolish to overlook them. Simply put, online betting offers a superior overall experience. It may also assist you in increasing your earnings.
It is not only the simplest and most easy choice, but it also has superior odds. There’s also a bigger range of wagers to choose from, as well as more prizes and incentives to take advantage of. Enhanced multiples, money back incentives, and free bets are all common special offers for soccer at several betting sites. These may be very beneficial to a bankroll’s long-term growth.
Assume you wanted to deposit part of your money with a local bank, and you had two options. The first is giving you 6% interest, while the second is offering you 8%. If all else is equal, you’d go with the 8%, right? You would, of course, since you want to receive the greatest return on your investment.
When it comes to football betting, the same concept applies (or betting on anything in fact). You’re not searching for the lowest interest rate; instead, you want the greatest odds and lines. The time you spend looking for them may have a big impact on your final performance. We recommend opening accounts with a couple of the most popular football betting sites and analyzing the odds and lines for each wager.
Examine Your Betting History
If you want to optimize your earning potential, you must analyze your betting performance. There will always be methods to enhance your abilities, no matter how excellent you become. Even the most skilled and experienced bettors make errors, even if they are small, and even the most successful methods can generally be improved.
Keeping precise data on all of your wagers is the only method to fully evaluate where you may be going wrong and how you can improve. Surprisingly few bettors bother with this, and it doesn’t have to take much time. Once you’ve set up a spreadsheet, all you have to do now is fill in the necessary information every time you make a bet. You may then evaluate your bets and outcomes on a regular basis, which will benefit you in the long run.
The Importance Of Market Efficiency
If you want to be a good football bettor, you should attempt to grasp this concept. You may not consider betting to be a market, yet it is precisely that. It’s a matter of supply and demand. The wagers provided by bookmakers, which may be classified as positive anticipated value (+EV) or negative expected value (-EV), provide supply (-EV). Here are some very simple explanations if you don’t grasp these words.
A wager with a positive expected value (+EV) is one in which the possible rewards exceed the risks. In the long term, it is anticipated to be lucrative.
A wager with a negative expected value (-EV) is one in which the potential benefits do not outweigh the risks. It is anticipated that you will lose money in the long term.
Any bookmaker who sells too many +EV bets will go out of business. When one becomes available, there is a tremendous desire for it, and it sells out quickly. Who’s going to purchase them? Most of the time, the world’s biggest and most skilled gamblers are selecting +EV lines.
To elaborate, the largest sportsbooks, bookies, and betting sites essentially dominate the football betting industry. They keep a careful eye on the action they’re taking as they establish early lines. If they see unbalanced activity (i.e., more bets on one result than on another), they alter their lines appropriately.
They modify them again if the unbalanced activity continues. They essentially tweak till they reach a sweet spot with balanced motion. Smaller bookmakers and betting sites will usually set odds and lines that are similar to those of the bigger operators. However, they may sometimes make one side of a wager seem more appealing.
Best 9 Strategies That 100% Work If You Use Them Correctly
We really hope that our readers will be successful football bettors. This football betting strategy guide’s whole goal is to help you do just that. It is for this reason that we have spent so much time and effort creating and compiling it.
We just wish to assist you in making money.
However, we expect you to be practical as well. We don’t want to give you the idea that we can teach you some magical betting method that will put you on the fast track to riches beyond your wildest dreams. That is just not possible since no such system exists.
The truth is that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to determining which football bets to make and when. There isn’t a single method that works perfectly every time and in every circumstance. For that to be the case, football is much too unpredictable. As a result, football betting strategy entails more than just following a set of rules and watching the money flow in.
You may use a variety of various methods when it comes to your football betting choices. Although many of them have value, the most effective ones are very sophisticated. This indicates that they are unlikely to be appropriate for beginners. It’s pointless to attempt to grasp sophisticated tactics when you’re still learning the fundamentals. Before you’re ready for them, you’ll need additional experience.
Of course, you still want to maximize your earning potential in the interim. You won’t become a successful bettor overnight, but you should start with the best intentions possible. This involves understanding how to put betting ideas into action as quickly as possible. And this is something with which we can assist.
For novices, we’ve listed a few methods to consider. They’re quite simple, so they’re not too tough to comprehend. They all have the potential to be useful, but don’t anticipate them to bring in quick cash.
They’re essentially simply broad recommendations for what you should be betting on and when, like so many other betting methods. Individual opportunities must still be evaluated and analyzed for oneself. However, they’re a fantastic place to start, so keep reading to learn more.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a betting technique that uses a mathematical approach to estimate the stake of a wager on an event with higher-than-expected odds. It is based on good money management. The algorithm determines what proportion of your bankroll you should utilize to maximize the value of your wager. There are numerous versions of this formula, some of which seem to be only understandable by math wizards, but we’ve simplified it for you.
Stake = (Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) / (Decimal Odds – 1) * 100
Stake = Maximum stake
Decimal Odds = Odds offered by the bookmaker
% Chance Win = Probability of winning as determined by you, expressed as a decimal point
Assume you estimated the chance to be 55% (0.55) on an even-money (2.0) bet:
Stake = ((2.0 x 0.55) – 1) / (2.0 – 1) x 100
Stake = ((1.10 – 1) / 1) x 100
Stake = 10%
For those who get migraines from formulae like the one above, the stake is just the difference between your calculated chances of winning and losing. Don’t wager if you don’t have an advantage, or if you have a negative edge.
The Kelly Criterion, like any other method, has flaws, which are particularly noticeable in football betting. To begin with, it often asks you to stake a large portion of your bankroll on a wager, as in the example above.
Given that it’s an aggressive approach aimed at maximizing earnings, a big investment is often needed. The Kelly Criterion’s premise that a bettor can correctly anticipate the likelihood of a certain result is the second and most serious flaw in this betting method.
The calculations underlying this approach get distorted if you misunderstand a team’s probability of winning as a percentage number, and you pay the price.
As a result, if you’re going to try the technique in football betting, it’s probably best to be cautious and avoid overestimating the likelihood of a win. That way, your stakes won’t be too high, and your losses won’t wipe out your whole bankroll.
The Contrarian Strategy
Fading the crowd, or wagering against the public, is another name for the contrarian approach. The concept is simple: you place a wager that is the polar opposite of what the bulk of others are doing. It’s based on the basic premise that the vast majority of people will be incorrect, since most football bettors are losers in the long run.
It makes sense to gamble against the majority if the majority of bettors lose.
You can’t really argue with the reasoning in this case. It is a fact that the majority of football bettors lose money. As a result, it’s not unrealistic to believe that betting against the majority of people would be lucrative. And there was a time when this simple approach might be very lucrative.
Unfortunately, this was many years ago, when bookies weren’t nearly as efficient as they are today in establishing odds and lines. These days, this approach is WAY TOO SIMPLE.
The basic concept still holds true, since the public often overvalued one side of a line. This is particularly true for large games that draw a lot of attention, since these are the games that most casual bettors wager on. However, for the approach to be really successful, it has to be refined.
Even in its most basic form, we wouldn’t discourage you from using this approach. You can possibly still earn some money betting against the public if you’re picky and choose the proper places. As a novice, it’s a good and easy technique to employ. However, with some somewhat more advanced methods, you should eventually learn how to utilize public opinion to your benefit.
Are you searching for a football betting strategy that consistently produces winning results? Match betting is the most popular and effective football betting strategy. Unlike a couple of the other techniques mentioned in this article, matched betting is the only football strategy that is practically risk-free (barring human error and gubbings) and consistently produces large returns.
The idea is to back bets and then lay them off such that you can’t lose a bet since you will win regardless of the result. This is something you should do when a bookmaker has offered to match your wager with a free bet. You can’t lose if you put your bet on hold.
Regardless of the game’s result, you will get a free bet. You may then put the free bet on hold to guarantee that you earn a profit no matter what happens. With the matched betting method, you are assured to earn a profit every month. Since we began matched betting, we’ve earned over $55,000 in profit and have never had a losing month.
Following Steam Moves
It’s all about attempting to imitate what the truly savvy bettors are doing when it comes to steam movements. It’s based on the idea that large swings in the betting markets are typically the result of betting syndicates and/or successful high-stakes bettors putting their money down.
They’re betting so much money that bookies and betting companies are compelled to change their odds and lines significantly. Steam movements, or just steam, are the terms for these changes. The goal of this approach is to find out what these clever people are betting on by looking at how the odds and lines have changed. Then you just copy them and place your bets in the same manner.
This seems to be a perfectly reasonable technique, and it does have the potential to be lucrative. However, there are a few issues with it as well. The first is that these steam movements may occur at any moment. Unless you’re always paying attention to the odds and lines, you’ll miss them.
To say the least, this isn’t very practical for most individuals. The second is that steam movements are only noticeable after the odds and lines have been changed to account for the weight of money. As a result, by the time you figure out what to bet on, the markets may have changed to the point where it’s no longer a good bet.
In the proper conditions, following steam movements may be very lucrative. As a result, we suggest adopting this approach when you can. Just be aware that appropriate possibilities will be scarce.
Off-Market Pricing Betting
This strategy’s idea is extremely simple. It is predicated on the fact that bookmakers and betting sites sometimes give odds and lines that vary significantly from the rest of the market. This may simply be because they have a different perspective than the rest of the group.
It may also be due to the bets they’ve previously made or are about to make. Take, for example, a bookmaker who has taken a large bet on the favorite on the spread. They may then alter their spread to keep more money away from that side.
This may generate value on the opposite side of the spread since the underdog will get more points than everyone else. In this case, betting on the underdog to cover the spread may be the best option.
You must examine the odds and lines at a number of different bookies and/or betting sites to discover off-market pricing. Anything that sticks out as being obviously different is what you’re searching for. For example, you could see the following at four different betting sites.
The betting line for Betting Site A is pretty simple. The point spread is seven points, and both sides are offered at -110 odds. On the same spread, Betting Site B is providing a comparable line with somewhat different odds. The spread at Betting Site C is somewhat different, but only by half a point.
On the other hand, the spread at Betting Site D is a full two points difference. When you see anything like this, it’s nearly always a good idea to take Philadelphia at -5. This is solely due to the fact that you are receiving two points more than the rest of the market suggests.
Of course, you’re not certain to win, but until you can come up with a compelling explanation why this spread is so different from the rest of the market, it’s a smart bet to make. Please keep in mind that these and similar scenarios used to be quite frequent in the football betting markets.
However, since markets have become considerably more efficient in recent years, skewed lines are becoming more uncommon. They do, however, still exist. So keeping an eye out for them is a good idea.
The Rebound Game Strategy
The rebound game strategy is very straightforward. It does not require a lot of effort. All you have to do is look at game results and search for teams who have lost a blowout, lost a game they were supposed to win, or have suffered some other kind of setback. The bounce back hypothesis is then used.
What is the bounce-back hypothesis, and how does it work? The bounce-back hypothesis says that if a team has been severely defeated, or has lost unexpectedly, or has lost late in the game, they will increase their performance. It’s based on the notion that defeats like these may inspire a team to do better the next time they compete.
The problem with this approach is that you can never be assured that a team will respond positively after a setback. It’s also conceivable that they’ll have a lack of confidence and go on a losing streak. As a result, we don’t suggest backing a club simply because they were on the losing end of a terrible defeat the previous game.
However, you should keep an eye out for situations when the bounce back principle may apply. They may be very lucrative if you have sufficient knowledge about the teams involved. If you believe a team has a very strong mindset, for example, you should probably support them based on the high chance that they would recover.
The Bye Week Strategy
The bye week approach is based on anecdotal evidence that teams perform better than average after a bye week. It’s a really easy approach to put into action, but it’s also extremely restricted. The concept is simple: you wager on a team’s first game after a bye week. There isn’t much more to say about it.
Even though statistical research indicates teams have a better than average win percentage in games after their bye week, we can’t advocate this approach in its most basic version. This isn’t a solid enough reason to support teams blindly in the absence of all other considerations.
The benefit of the additional rest and preparation time is already included into the betting markets, therefore you won’t discover any value with this strategy. The fundamental approach has some validity, but it will need to be tweaked to be really successful.
This necessitates delving further into some statistical research in order to determine under what conditions the bye week has the most impact. This isn’t very basic, therefore it’s not really suitable when talking about beginning methods.
So, why have we gone through everything? Because it’s still an effective method to draw attention to possible wagering possibilities. It’s really a smart idea to pay careful attention to games featuring teams coming off a bye week, as you may discover some excellent betting opportunities. It’s just as essential not to immediately back the side that has had more rest. You must also take into account a number of other variables.
Arbitrage betting isn’t everyone’s favorite approach, but it may be effective if you do your research in football analysis. You may use this strategy to look at the differences in odds from various bookmarkers. You’ll find games with almost identical odds among them, giving you an indication of the optimal bets to make based on bookmarkers’ statistical research.
As a result, you will need to devote time to monitoring the odds from bookmarkers and comparing them to one another in order to choose the ideal locations to make your bets. One thing to remember while using this technique is to modify your wagers based on the odds that were given to you. Increase your wagers if you see that a team’s odds are high.
If you can do thorough study and analysis, this approach may help you make money and avoid large losses. Because of the time it takes to verify the odds from several bookmarkers, few gamblers utilize it. However, if you are ready to put in the effort, you will be rewarded with greater outcomes and a more enjoyable betting experience.
Price Boost Exploitation
This is a clever strategy that many seasoned gamblers use. This betting approach tries to take advantage of the bookmarkers’ weaknesses. The odds provided by bookies vary, and it is on these odds that you will place your bets. When bookmakers raise the odds on a team, it indicates they aim to entice more bettors to place bets on that squad. Price increase exploitation works in the same way that matched betting and arbitrage do. To guarantee a victory, you’ll utilize the odds provided by the bookmakers but place opposite bets.
You can bet on a team to win with one bookie, but you can bet on the team to lose with another. You win regardless of whatever team wins.
Choose a team on which you will wager more than the other. Checking the ranks and data of the rival teams is the easiest way to get started with the price increase exploitation method. You’ll know where to make a larger wager this way. This approach needs more study and analysis. However, if you are used to seeing team rankings and performances, picking sides will be simple.
Bet On The Most Famous Soccer Competitions
The World Cup is the equivalent of the Champions League on a global scale. The World Cup, which is organized by FIFA rather than UEFA, brings together 32 national football organizations and pits them against each other in a month-long sporting spectacle. Everything else fades into the background when the World Cup is on. This tournament attracts bettors from all around the globe. It’s the most anticipated soccer tournament in the world! As a result, soccer betting companies go to great lengths to provide the best possible bet coverage.
We’re certain you’re well-versed on the Champions League. In Europe, it is the pinnacle of competitive club soccer. It’s the old continent’s soccer tournament, bringing together all of the greatest teams and players for a season-long competition culminating in a single grand final match on neutral ground. If you want to bet on some of the most important soccer matches, the Champions League is where you should look.
None of the European domestic leagues has the same allure as the English Premier League. It has some of the world’s finest players. In fact, three Premier League teams competed in the grand finals of the Europa and Champions Leagues in the 20/21 season. Arsenal might have finished fourth if they hadn’t been defeated in the semi-finals by Villarreal.
The Europa League is Europe’s second-largest club tournament! It’s the Champions League’s younger sibling. Although the level of competition is lesser, the last few knockout stages are just as exciting and star-studded as the Champions League. Soccer bookmakers don’t scrimp on odds for Europa League matches when it comes to betting. Soccer betting services do their best to cover them properly, so if you’re looking for EL betting, you’ll have lots of options.
The Major League Soccer, or MLS, is a professional soccer league in the United States. It’s the highest level of competitive soccer in the area, with some of the best players in the region. Top European players often retire in MLS, which lends a sense of quality to the rosters. Bettors in the United States like Major League Soccer, and the sport is now gaining momentum on the other side of the Atlantic.
The Most Frequently Asked Questions About Online Soccer Betting
How Much Money Can I Make Online By Betting On Soccer?
It all depends on your level of expertise. Not only are they talented, but they’re also experienced! Your capacity to self-control and do things in a systematic manner will determine how long you can remain at online soccer betting sites. Even while the art of soccer betting may seem chaotic at first, as you start factoring in things like betting systems, various tactics, live betting, and props, you’ll understand how complicated it truly is. Play for pleasure, and the money will come afterwards! We recommend you to start with our 1 Daily Soccer Combo Bet if you want to win BIG on football predictions with the minimum of effort.
Is It Safe To Bet On Soccer Online?
Should you go to an online soccer sportsbook at all? Should you be concerned about malware infiltrating your computer while you’re here? The simple answer is no! When we speak about soccer bookies, we’re usually talking about large corporations that are concerned about internet security. If you want to be safe while betting on soccer online for money, you use one of these football prediction sites.
If you want to take chances, though, feel free to utilize any soccer bookie you can find. Hey, it may not have the most up-to-date internet security, but it certainly does offer some fantastic soccer odds, right? To put it another way, your time spent at online soccer bookmakers is only as safe as you make it!
Should I Sign Up For Multiple Soccer Betting Sites?
Yes, you should register with more than one online soccer bookmaker. The bonuses are the most important factor! You’ll receive two welcome bonuses if you join two sites. When you join three, you get three. Do you see where I’m heading with this? It’s perfectly legal to experiment with free bets on numerous real money soccer sports betting sites, but establishing several accounts with a single bookie will almost certainly result in all of your accounts being blocked. Our recommendation is to start with Tips180. Click on it to read why.
What Kinds Of Soccer Bets Can You Place Online?
The most popular soccer bets offered on major real money soccer betting sites are as follows:
- Double chance
- Moneyline or match-winner bets
- Total goals over/under
- Both to score
- Player to score
- Correct score
- Double chance
Remember that this is just a sampling of the most popular soccer betting choices! There’s a lot more possibilities where they came from! On soccer bookmakers, the possibilities are limitless!
What Is The Minimum Age Requirement For Soccer Betting?
The legal age limit for online soccer betting is the same as the legal age limit for sports betting in general, in most countries. The rules vary from one nation to the next. Whether you’re a young boy and aren’t sure if you’re permitted to wager legally, you should look into your country’s betting laws.
Soccer betting is one of the most common kinds of sports betting that bettors will encounter at their sportsbooks. With the sport’s global appeal covering leagues all over the globe, it’s no wonder that it’s one of the most popular sports for bettors to wager on.
Naturally, betting on football requires a thorough knowledge of the different clubs and leagues that are available for wagering. However, for those who follow football in all of its forms across the world, there is perhaps more to bet on in terms of betting tips and betting odds markets in football than in any other sport.
Football is a great game to play, but you’ll love it much more if you win your betting games. So, if you want to have a fantastic football betting experience, make sure you have time to study games and data. This is how you may decide where to put your bets and start winning money.